Andrew F. Krepinevich, "7 Deadly Scenarios: A Military Futurist Explores War in the 21st Century"
Bantam Books | 2009 | ISBN: 0553805398 | 352 pages | siPDF | 5.9 MB
Bantam Books | 2009 | ISBN: 0553805398 | 352 pages | siPDF | 5.9 MB
A global pandemic finds millions swarming across the U.S. border.
Major U.S. cities are leveled by black-market nukes.
China’s growing civil unrest ignites a global showdown.
Pakistan’s collapse leads to a hunt for its nuclear weapons.
What if the worst that could happen actually happens? How would we respond? Are we ready?
These are the questions that Andrew Krepinevich asks—and answers—in this timely and often chilling new book, which describes the changing face of war in the twenty-first century and identifies seven deadly scenarios that threaten our security in the crucial years ahead. As president of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments and consultant to secretaries of defense, the CIA, the Homeland Security Council and the Joint Forces Command, Krepinevich’s job is to think the unthinkable—and prepare a response in the event our worst nightmares become reality.
Basing his analysis on open intelligence sources, an assessment of the latest global and political trends, and his knowledge of contemporary military history, Krepinevich starts each of the seven scenarios in the context of current geopolitical realities and vividly tracks the path to crisis. From the implosion of Pakistan to a worldwide cyberattack, from the consequences of a timed withdrawal from Iraq to the likelihood of a China on the march, Krepinevich reveals the forces—both overt and covert—that are in play; the ambitions of world powers, terrorist groups, and rogue states; and the actions and counteractions both our enemies and our allies can be expected to take.
As riveting as a thriller, 7 Deadly Scenarios takes you inside the corridors of power, peers into the world of defense planning, and explores U.S. military and political strategy in the past, present, and likely future. The result is a must-read book that will trigger discussion, thought, and—hopefully—action.
Warning: All quotes and citations in Chapters 1-7 dated after Fall 2008 are fabrications. See page 29 for details. Therefore it is extremely dangerous to "quote" this book out of context.
Contents
MapsTags: qWorldPolitics, qMilitaryPolicy, qStrategy, qChina, qForecasting
Introduction: A Glimpse of the Future
Pearl Harbor
The Dawn of Blitzkrieg
Millennium Challenge
Yoda
Scenarios: Preparing for an Uncertain Future
Leaving the Comfort Zone
Don't Try to Predict the Future-You Can't
Scenarios and Strategy
Why Do We Have A Hard Time Changing Our Vision?
Thinking About the Next War
"The Streetfighter State"
Insights from "The Streetfighter State"
1 The Collapse of Pakistan
Assassination
"The Century's Greatest Crisis"
The Slow Disintegration of Pakistan
The Rise of Radical Islamism: The Madrassas
The Ungoverned Areas and the Radical Islamist Movement
Run-Up to the Current Crisis
What Is to Be Done?
2 War Comes to America
Ten Determined Men
Remember the Alamo?
No Fingerprints?
The Red Connection
The Spartacus Effect
"My Fellow Americans"
"Rag-Heads 60,000; U.S. 0"
3 Pandemic
South of the Border, Down Mexico Way…
The Pandemic "Plague"
A Global Economy In Crisis
An Imposing Enemy
"Plague" In the Information Age
Chaos on America's Doorstep
Go North, Young Man…
The Shadow of Death
How Did It Happen?
The World's Weak Defenses
Globalization: The Great Enabler?
Waging War on Pandemic Influenza
Mexican Exodus
"Moonshine"
The Coming Wave
4 Armageddon: The Assault on Israel
An Echo from the Past
The Second Lebanon War
Iraq and the Sunni Arab States
Iran Ascendant
The Mullahs' Descent
The Growing Crisis
The 28 Mordad
The Sinking of the Moshe Dayan
"Greater Than Entebbe"
Sliding Toward Armageddon
An Iranian "Guarantee"?
The View from Washington
The Last Hours of Peace?
5 China's "Assassin's Mace"
The Last Days of Peace?
Thinking About the Day After Tomorrow
Dragon or Panda?
The Sputtering Engine of Growth
Is Demography Destiny?
The Little Violent Emperors
Water
The Long Path to War
China's Military Transformation: The Assassin's Mace
China's Threat to the Global Commons
Chinese Challenge to U.S. Command of the Sea and Undersea
Chinese Challenge to U.S. Access to Space
Chinese Threats to Cyberspace
China's Strategic Depth
China's Crisis
Caught Napping
We Seek No Wider Conflict
6 Just Not-on-Time: The War on the Global Economy
Background to the Current Crisis: The Global Shipping Network
Background to the Current Crisis: The Global Energy Trade
The Forces of Disorder
"The Platforms Are Burning"
"The Mother of All Oil Fires"
The Cyberblockade
Baby Hiroshima
Blue Christmas
7 Who Lost Iraq?
The "Blame Game"
Not So Fast
Stagflation and Declining U.S. Support
Iraq's Factions Reemerge
The Short Recessional
The Stand at Najaf
The Long Road Home
The Shi'a Surge
The Turks Make Their Move
Exit the Advisers
The War Spreads
On the Outside Looking In
Conclusion: Lighting the Path Ahead
So What?
"Wasting Assets"
What Is Strategy?
Barriers to Good Strategy
What Is to Be Done?
Creating New Paths to the Future
Concepts of Operations
Willingness to Designate "Winners" and "Losers"
A Sense of Urgency
Sustained Effort
Emphasis on the Operational Level of War
The Customer
Training Facilities
Resources
Input in Developing Future Requirements
Conclusion
Acknowledgments
Index
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