Medium-Term Oil and Gas Markets 2010

This new combined publication tries to answer these questions, presenting a comprehensive, annual outlook for oil and gas market fundamentals for the next few years. The detailed oil market analysis develops two oil demand scenarios, given the ongoing uncertainties about the path of economic recovery after the worldwide slow-down In 2008/2009.

Market balances are generated on a bottom-up basis, derived from detailed analysis of upstream Investment projects, oil field decline rates, product-by-product demand trends, and refinery investment and operations.
The gas market analysis provides a broader overview, assessing prices, unconventional gas, future demand developments, LNG markets as well as investment
In all parts of the gas value chain and regional trends. It focuses on key producers, Including Russia, the Caspian region, the Middle East and rising LNG exporters like Australia, and looks at the implications for global gas markets.

TOC (brief)
Foreword
Executive Summary
OIL
Overview
Oil Pricing
Demand
Supply
Biofuels
Crude Trade
Refining and Product Supply
Tables
GAS
Overview
Recent Global Market Trends
Short-Term Demand Forecasts
Market Trends in the LN G Business
Unconventional Gas
Prices and Trading Developments
Investments Overview
Investments in Production
Investment in LN G
Investments in Pipelines and Regasification Terminals


TABLE OF CONTENTS (detail)
PART 1: OIL
OVERVIEW
Oil Pricing
Demand
Supply
Biofuels
Crude Trade
Refining and Product Supply
OIL PRICING
Methodology for Calculating the ‘IEA Average Import Price’
Oil Price Volatility: Causes, Impacts and Potential Remedies
Financial Market Regulation
The US Takes the Lead
Divergent European Approaches
Asian Moves to Clearing
The Role of International Organisations
DEMAND
Summary
Global Overview
Oil Demand Sensitivity: Caught Between Income and Efficiency
OECD North America
Evaporating US Gasoline Demand?
OECD Europe
OECD Pacific
Energy Subsidies: Getting the Price Right
Asia
Middle East
Staring at the Crystal Ball: New Transportation Trends
Latin America
Ethylene’s Booming Times Ahead
Former Soviet Union
SUPPLY
Summary
Non?OPEC Supply Overview
A Brighter Outlook
Dissecting the Changes: More Upstream Projects and Slower Decline Rates
Revisions to Forecast
Sustained Spending and Access to Reserves Will Drive Future Prospects
Sources of Non?OPEC Supply Growth
The Evolution of Crude Oil Production by Quality
Regional Breakdown
North America
Potential Implications of US Gulf Oil Spill
OECD Europe
OECD Pacific
Former Soviet Union (FSU)
Asia
Latin America
Middle East
Africa
Natural Gas Liquids – Cornerstone of Global Oil Supply Growth
What are NGLs?
Realising Investment in the NGL Value Chain
Trends in Natural Gas Production and Implications for NGL Supply
Global NGL Supply Outlook
OPEC Crude Oil Capacity Outlook
Middle East Producers Stay the Course
Reversal of Fortune for OPEC’s African Producers
Iraqi Efforts to Boost Capacity Face Headwinds
Mixed Outlook for OPEC’s Latin American Producers
BIOFUELS
Summary
Biofuels Production Prospects Improve, Though Hurdles Remain
Key Revisions to the Supply Outlook
Regional Outlook and Policies
OECD North America
Latin America
OECD Europe
Asia?Pacific
Second?Generation Biofuels Hold Promise, But Capacity Remains Low
CRUDE TRADE
Summary
Overview and Methodology
Regional Trade
REFINING AND PRODUCT SUPPLY
Summary
Refinery Investment Overview
Refining Margins Trending Higher
Refinery Utilisation and Global Throughputs
Product Supply Balances
Products Supply Modelling – Seeking the Pressure Points
Regional Developments
North America
US Refiners Prepare for Increased Canadian Supplies
OECD Europe
OECD Pacific
Japan – Talking Refinery Consolidation, Major Reductions
China
Other Asia
India’s Downstream Petroleum Sector
Latin America
Middle East
Saudi Arabia’s Mega Projects Slip Again?
Africa
China – Investing also in the African Downstream
Former Soviet Union
TABLES
PART 2: GAS
OVERVIEW
RECENT GLOBAL MARKET TRENDS
Summary
The Worst Decline Ever
OECD Demand Trends
Seasonally Adjusted Demand Trends
Non?OECD Demand Trends
Supply Trends: the Boom and the Bust
The Gas Glut
Oil Versus Gas Drilling
OECD Regions
Non?OECD Regions
Are Gas Markets Globalising?
SHORT TERM DEMAND FORECASTS
Summary
Methodology
Short?Term Gas Demand Forecasts by Sector
Residential/Commercial Sector
Industry
Power Generation Sector
Others
MARKET TRENDS IN THE LNG BUSINESS
Summary
Stronger LNG Growth Buoyed by Liquefaction Expansion
Current Expansion of Liquefaction and its Consequences
Qatargas and RasGas Mega?Trains, Qatar
Sakhalin II, Russia
Tangguh, Indonesia
Yemen LNG, Yemen
Peru LNG, Peru
Pluto, Western Australia
Angola LNG, Angola
Skikda and Gassi Touil, Algeria
Sluggish Performance of Existing LNG Plants
Bontang and Arun, Indonesia
Nigeria LNG, Nigeria
Malaysia LNG, Malaysia
North West Shelf (NWS), Western Australia
Flood of New Terminals
Terminals in Europe – Notably in the United Kingdom, Italy and France
New Terminals in China
Latin America Expands
Middle East Emerges
Portfolio LNG Players are Thriving
Supermajors and International Oil and Gas Companies (IOGCs)
Asian Utility Buyers and Trading Houses
UNCONVENTIONAL GAS
Summary
Unconventional Gas Types
A Slow Evolution
What Price is Needed for Unconventional Gas?
Unconventional Gas Outside the US, a Dream or a Reality?
Limited Studies on the Potential
Population Density
Environmental Concerns
Gas Grid
Landowners’ Acceptance
Access to Technology
Unconventional Gas Developments Outside North America
Australia
China
India
Indonesia
Europe: An Evolution Rather Than a Revolution
Other Regions Have Still to Appear on the Radar Screen
Unconventional Gas Global Players
The New Prize
What is the Rationale?
PRICES AND TRADING DEVELOPMENTS
Summary
Two Different Price Systems: is a $5/MBtu Gap Sustainable?
Gas Price Evolution: a Look Back at 2008?10
Regional Price Evolution
Continental European Spot Price
North?American Prices
Asian Price Developments
European Market Development
INVESTMENTS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENTS IN PRODUCTION
Summary
Introduction
Domestic Market Obligations (DMO)
Russia
The Year 2009: The Outcome
Long?Term Energy Strategy to 2030: Taking into Account the New Signs?
New Projects
The Caspian Region
Turkmenistan
Azerbaijan
Middle East and North Africa
Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
Iran
Oman
INVESTMENT IN LNG
Summary
Pacific Advances two Major Projects: Gorgon and Papua New Guinea
Gorgon, Western Australia
PNG, Papua New Guinea
CBM?to?LNG Race is Heating Up in Australian State of Queensland
Western Australian Race is also Hot
Indonesia: Domestic Market Versus Exports
Uncertainty Continues in the Atlantic
Shtokman and Yamal LNG, Russia
Nigeria
Equatorial Guinea
Cameroon
Venezuela
Iran and Iraq Are Yet to Emerge in the Middle East
Iran
Iraq
North American LNG Exports?
INVESTMENTS IN PIPELINES AND REGASIFICATION TERMINALS
Summary
Global Trends
Europe
One Pipeline Advances
North America
A Multitude of LNG Terminals – is There Room or Need for Others?
South America
New LNG Terminals – any Hope for a Regional LNG Market?
Pipeline Projects – Mostly on Hold
Middle East?Africa
A Small Revolution – LNG Import Projects
Pipeline Developments – Small Interconnections Move Forward
Asia
Pipeline Projects: Mostly Looking West
LNG Regasification Terminals: Two Major Players on the Rise
Southeast Asia
Pipeline Development
Regasification Terminals